Coffee prices plunge: Normal or not?

On June 19, domestic coffee prices in several Vietnamese provinces dropped to around VND 100,000 per kilogram, down VND 35,000 from the record high of VND 135,000 per kilogram recorded in March 2025. On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices also fell below USD 4,000 per ton, a sharp drop from the peak of over USD 5,800 per ton in February 2025.

Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak province), said that while coffee prices have dropped significantly, the decline is not unusual due to Brazil's bumper harvest, especially for Robusta. 

According to him, only 10%-15% of coffee remains in the hands of farmers, meaning most has already been sold at high prices.

“The current price of around VND 100,000 per kilogram, though lower than before, is still reasonable and ensures a balance of interests among all stakeholders in the coffee production and consumption chain. When coffee prices soared to VND 130,000 - 135,000 per kilogram, roasters faced tremendous difficulties,” Mr. Minh noted.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cacao Association (VICOFA), said that Brazil has nearly completed its Robusta harvest, with an estimated output of about 25 million tons — a bumper crop. 

He explained that with no significant supply shortage and no surge in global demand, combined with geopolitical conflicts in several regions, many investors have shifted capital from coffee to other commodities like gold and oil, pushing coffee prices down sharply.

For export businesses, sharp price fluctuations have created significant risks. Mr. Nguyen Dac Dat, owner of a second-tier coffee dealership in Dak Nong province, said prices have dropped about 30% from their peak, and the market remains unstable, leading to subdued trading activity. 

“Farmers are not offloading their coffee, while exporters are hesitant to make large purchases due to a lack of new contracts. Only a few traders in need of stock are buying in small quantities while waiting for price stabilization,” he said.

According to Mr. Vo Van Khang, a shareholder of the Vương Thành Công coffee brand in Dak Lak with 30 hectares of coffee farms, many growers only broke even or incurred losses in previous years. It’s only in the past two years, with rising prices, that farmers have turned a profit. However, unpredictable coffee prices pose major risks for growers.